No sooner had the Great Pumpkin passed than the Wall Street Journal fires up speculation about the “any day now” gPhone announcement.

The rumors cluster around three sets of ideas:

1. Google is interested in developing an ad-based cell phone market place, where the phone and/or usage would be subsidized by ads. “Hi, this is your Mother speaking,” … “We pause this phone call for a short message from our sponsor …”, … “Did you forget your Dad’s birthday again ?” The scenario is interesting, but faces interesting marketing challenges.

2. Google is interested in developing a unix based smart phone architecture and operating system through which it could place local and/or otherwise smart ads. This would be partly a general keitai device, with access to mapping services, etc. iMode for gOogle. The software, and an SDK would be open sourced and free for cell phone manufacturers. Again an interesting scenario, especially with the rapidity with which Chinese manufacturers were able to demonstrate prototypes of iPhone clones. The catch here is that most cell phone companies are loath to allow users to choose their own devices, at least in the United States. Of course, gOogle maybe thinking globally, with an eye to developing Google.cn and Google.in.

3. Google is interested in producing services that run on regular cellphones. That is already partially true - Google Mobile services supports the google homepage, google search. gmail, … google.com/mobile … - which run nicely enough on some devices. Other devices, well. In this scenario, google would try to urge regular vendors and networks to be more google friendly, perhaps offering to share revenues. The bit of light in this scenario is “fear of iPhone.” Everyone (ha!) is afraid of being left behind the technology shift, with the phone companies going the way of the recording industry.

4. Google is interested in becoming a communications carrier. This is the scenario that comes out of google’s earlier efforts to get the FCC to require an “open access” policy for the 700 Mhz spectrum with the promise that it would thereby enter the bidding for spectrum. As far fetched as this seems, Google is a very fat Cash Cow, so this is something it could afford to do. Or, even less far fetched, something it could encourage - it could buy the spectrum, but allow 3rd parties to franchise the services, perhaps offering support in interesting, money making rules.

Or, all of the above. Which is what I expect to eventually happen. In any case, if the one concrete item in the rumors is true … that an announcement will be made tomorrow, November 6th, we will soon know. Too bad they don’t hire Steve Jobs to do the announcement for them :)

Sources:

John Markoff, I, Robot: The Man Behind the Google Phone, New York Times, November 4, 2007. http://www.nytimes.com/2007/11/04/technology/04google.html

Ben Worthen, Ring-Ring…Google to Announce Phone Plans Monday, Wall Street Journal Online, November 1, 2007, 5:34 pm. http://blogs.wsj.com/biztech/2007/11/01/ring-ringgoogle-to-announce-phone-plans-monday/

Ben Worthen, The Gphone Is All About Mobile Software, Wall Street Journal Online, October 31, 2007, 1:10 pm. http://blogs.wsj.com/biztech/2007/10/31/the-gphone-is-all-about-mobile-software/

Amol Sharma, Can Google-Powered Phones Connect With Carriers?, Wall Street Journal Online, October 30, 2007; Page B1. http://online.wsj.com/public/article/SB119369951717475558.html

Amol Sharma and Kevin J. Delaney, Google Pushes Tailored Phones To Win Lucrative Ad Market, Wall Street Journal Online, August 2, 2007; Page A1. http://online.wsj.com/article/SB118602176520985718.html

–, Le Gphone dévoilé dans 15 jours ?, Abondance, lundi 27 août 2007. http://actu.abondance.com/2007/08/le-gphone-dvoil-dans-15-jours.html

Eric Schmidt, Google Intends to Bid in Spectrum Auction If FCC Adopts Consumer Choice and Competition Requirements, Google, Mountain View, California, July 20, 2007. http://www.google.com/intl/en/press/pressrel/20070720_wireless.html

T3, the gadget website, is reporting hands-on time with the UK version of the iPhone 1.1.2 ROM version.

The not really unexpected update fixes the TIFF display error that provided the 1.1.1 Jailbreak route. Business wise, this is good news security wise, but not so good for the community of users wanting a bit more out of their cellphone than Apple, AT&T, Verizon, etc, care to offer. Cash cows are Sacred Cows.

Sources:

Mark Wilson, UK iPhone Launching with 1.1.2 Firmware, Jailbreak Broken., Saturday, Nov 3, 2007, 10:45 pm. http://gizmodo.com/gadgets/crap/uk-iphone-launching-with-112-firmware-jailbreak-broken-318611.php

It’s Official: iPhone 1.1.2, T3, 2007-11-04, http://www.t3.co.uk/news/247/communications/mobile_phone/iphone-firmware-update-2

 A “one-click” (almost zero-click) jailbreak has been released for iPhone 1.1.1. Just point your iPhone’s Safari browser at http://www.jailbreakme.com/, tap the “install” link, and in a few minutes, your iPhone now has Installer running on it. And, as a byproduct, the TIFF bug is repaired (preventing further exploitation of this “feature.”)

iPhone Atlas, reports in an interview with Nicholas “Drudge” Penree, one of the developers of AppSnapp, that 150,000 visits have been made to the site resulting in approximately 100,000 downloads. Earlier, Apple itself had estimated that 250,000 iPhones have been “jailbroken,” so this 100,000 number may be a major increase in freed phones.

AppSnapp allows the installation of 3rd party applications on the iPhone; AnySim is necessary for using 3rd party cellular services.

Sources:

Nearly 150,000 installs of AppSnapp in 3 days, iPhoneAtlas.Com, Posted 31 October 2007 @ 2pm. http://www.iphoneatlas.com/2007/10/31/nearly-150000-installs-of-appsnapp-iphone-3rd-party-appjailbreak-tool-in-3-days/

Tom Krazit, More than 100,000 iPhone owners break out of jail, October 31, 2007 4:28 PM PDT. http://www.news.com/8301-13579_3-9808647-37.html

Tom Krazit, Apple: 250,000 iPhones bought to unlock, Cnet News, October 23, 2007 5:28 PM PDT. http://www.news.com/8301-13579_3-9802980-37.html

AppleInsider.Com reports on a Piper Jaffray anlysis of recent Apple sales estimating that 10% of the iPhones sold are destined for resale as unlocked iPhones.  Gene Munster, the lead analyst, bases this estimate is based on observations of customer behavior at Apple stores across the country. The researchers noticed the relatively large number of customers purchasing the maximum number of 5 phones (per store.) From this, they estimate that 10% of the iPhones are destined for use on non-AT&T based networks.

Katie Marsal, Report: 10 percent of September iPhones sold to unlocking teams, AppleInsider, Thursday, October 4, 2007,

There have been several discussions online about the prospects of the iBrick.

In the short term, people are getting a grip on what Apple has done to the iPhone during the 1.0.2 to 1.1.1 upgrade process, and what it takes to first undo the upgade, and then, eventually, how to hack the upgrade itself so that both worlds are possible. [1]

In the long term, the question is whether or not Apple will open the phone to developers in some sort of official way. [2], [3] Regardless of Apple’s approach, however, hacking the iPhone is going to be an important part of the iPhone future.

What Apple will do, of course, is pretty much a closely held secret. They could, for example, announce an open platform anytime they want … and say that was always their intent. The main pressure to keep the phone locked comes not only from AT&T, but also Verizon. Neither of them like the idea of an open network - they want to own not only the service and the bandwidth, they want to own the content.

Hackers, of course, will do what they have to do, some because they are paid, some because it’s cool.

At the top level, the “security industry” hackers can’t stand a “secure” device as much as Apple loves it; these hacks, unfortunately, won’t leak out to consumers.

The “telecommunication reverse engineering” hackers can’t afford to let Apple get too large of a lead less something like the iPod phenomenon happens; some of these exploits will leak.

The hobbiest hackers will, eventually, not only reopen the iPhone, but eventually someone will totally reengineer it - and we’ll boot the system into Linux

In the meantime, there will be an army of clones. [5]. [6]. [7], [8].

Wikinomically, if Apple had chose the open route, not only would the system become more secure in the long run, it would probably leave behind the closed competitors sniffing in the dust.

So, is the iPhone going to be more like the iPod (interesting and dominant) or more like the iBook (interesting, but marginal) ? For me, it’s probably not going to be a big issue, but for Apple, and Microsoft, and a whole lot of carriers, it might be crucial in the post-PC universe.

[1] IPhone unlock OS X Part 1 (of 4)
http://modmyiphone.com/wiki/index.php/IPhone_unlock_OS_X_Part_1
http://modmyiphone.com/wiki/index.php/IPhone_unlock_OS_X_Part_2
http://modmyiphone.com/wiki/index.php/IPhone_unlock_OS_X_Part_3

[2] Jaqui Cheng, Source: iPhone “SDK” will remain web-based for the foreseeable future, ArsTechnica, October 03, 2007 - 07:02AM CT
http://arstechnica.com/journals/apple.ars/2007/10/03/source-iphone-sdk-will-remain-web-based-for-the-foreseeable-future

[3] Tom Krazit, Trouble in iPhone paradise, CNET News.Com, October 1, 2007 1:08 PM PDT. http://www.news.com/8301-13579_3-9788616-37.html?tag=nefd.pulse

[4] Brad Reed, Apple’s Options for Stopping Open Source iPhone Use, Network World, September 28, 2007 12:00 PM PDT. http://www.pcworld.com/article/id,137831-c,iphone/article.html

[5] Benjamin1272, Fake Cool Iphone From china, May 10, 2007. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f_8wuVEYMZ8

[6] Report points to Chinese iPhone clone, January 29, 2007. http://www.macnn.com/articles/07/01/29/iphone.clone.surfaces/ (Alas, this runs Windows CE !)

[7] Another Apple iPhone Clone - From China, April 18, 2007. http://www.intomobile.com/2007/04/18/another-apple-iphone-clone-from-china.html [the Hua Long IP2000]

[8] Darren Murph, Keepin’ it real fake, part LXIII: iPhone clone on video, Jun 20th 2007. http://www.engadget.com/2007/06/20/keepin-it-real-fake-part-lx-iphone-clone-on-video/ Also http://www.eemobi.cn/mobile/12/722/3236.aspx [The Du Bao 302, $121]

The New York Times has had several nice reports on the “iBricking” of the “iPhone.” The commentary on the blogs are well worth reading - they seem to fall into two categories: one, following Saul Hansell’s lead that this is not a very smart approach on Apple’s and ATT’s part (neither for the short term or the long term; in Europe, the strategy is a dead-end to begin with since SIMs there are normally portable per GSM approach) ; and the other, the “they deserve what they got, they should learn to follow the rules!”

Links:

Katie Hafner, Altered iPhones Freeze Up, New York Times, September 29, 2007, http://www.nytimes.com/2007/09/29/technology/29iphone.html

Saul Hansell, More on Apple’s Latest Product, the iBrick, New York Times, September 28, 2007, 3:13 pm. http://bits.blogs.nytimes.com/2007/09/28/more-on-apples-latest-product-the-ibrick/

Saul Hansell, Steve Jobs Girds for the Long iPhone War, New York Times, September 27, 2007, 7:01 pm. http://bits.blogs.nytimes.com/2007/09/27/steve-jobs-girds-for-the-long-iphone-war/

Ok, here’s the plan.

I’ve bought a (reconditioned) iPhone a few weeks ago even though I live nowhere near an ATT service area (we have the other behemoth cell company to deal with here).

I bought it knowing that Apple and ATT and hordes of bots would try to turn my iPhone into an iBrick. (And that in the long run, this would happen - it’s all part of the techno-ecosystem.)

But in the spirit of the Mongol Rally, I decided to try and see how far I could get. I’m sure I’ll meet a lot of nice people along the way.

The beginnings of a (yet another) new blog.

Note: The theme here is Cutline by Chris Pearson. When I chose it, I just liked the general look and feel, but when I saw it full screen, I really liked the urban banner - it reminds me of New York somewhere in the vicinity of NYU, Montreal, Tokyo, Vancouver.